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Jared Rimer

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Maria update [Sep. 22nd, 2017|03:34 pm]
Jared Rimer
Here's the latest discussion on Maria as it has held a 125mph strength for a little while now.


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A ragged eye has re-appeared during the past several hours, but
overall the satellite presentation of Maria has not changed much
during the past several hours. The initial intensity is therefore
held at 110 kt pending data new data from an ongoing NOAA research
mission and an upcoming Air Force Reserve flight. According to
various analyses, Maria is under the influence of 20 kt of
shear from the southwest, which has apparently eroded the eyewall a
bit on that side of the storm. This shear may abate some in about
24 hours, although Maria will also be moving over an area of
gradually lowering oceanic heat content. Maria's intensity is
therefore only expected to decrease very gradually during the next
48 hours. After that time, the shear is expected to pick up again,
and Maria will be moving over the cold wake left behind by Jose.
As a result, a steadier weakening should ensue on days 3 through 5.
The NHC intensity forecast remains closest to the ICON intensity
consensus and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory.

Maria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
high centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is
335/8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it
moves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S.
Gulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles,
is likely to continue through day 5. The new track models have
shifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the
interpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on
the eastern edge of the guidance suite. Oddly enough, the ECMWF
model went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to
the east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on
days 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN
consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic due to Maria's heavy rains over the past few days.
Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are affecting the coast of the southeastern
United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-
threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.



We need to remember that sheer is basically wind, and it is effecting it somewhat. We'll have to see come next advisory what is happening. The cold wake of Jose is talking about where Jose has been as it has cooled that water where Maria will go. As I've discussed on my own show on the mix, these things hate cold water, but impacts to the United Statesare still unknown. This is definitely interesting.
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Jose is done, lee is back [Sep. 22nd, 2017|03:21 pm]
Jared Rimer
Lee is back as a depression. I thought it was done, but it looks like it regenerated and here's the discussion on advisory 18 issued this afternoon.


Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level
center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern
periphery of a large upper-level trough. A large convective burst
over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level
center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper
trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is
now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the
center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind
speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy
structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data.

Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate
the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee
remains in a low-shear environment. The depression is expected to
strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast
to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance,
although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the
lower-shear, warmer-water environment. This wind speed forecast is
difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which
notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity.

Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt. The depression should turn
to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it
moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic. Lee is
forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few
days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range. It
should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of
Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain
forecast. For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which
has the most coherent cyclone to follow.



This is going to be interesting as it is no threat to land.

As for Jose, the winds are now away from land, although it'll cause havoc as a post tropical cyclone at 45mph at this time. This has been the longest in history, 16 days for a cyclone for this year. The post tropical reports are definitely going to be interesting this year.
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My tweets [Sep. 22nd, 2017|12:00 pm]
Jared Rimer
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My tweets [Sep. 21st, 2017|12:00 pm]
Jared Rimer
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How Can We Get Jobs When We Are Disabled? [Sep. 20th, 2017|02:54 pm]
Jared Rimer
I just published this article entitled How Can We Get Jobs When We Are Disabled? and it looks good. I hope you'll find it of interest. Who knows, something may come out of it.
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Maria update [Sep. 20th, 2017|02:44 pm]
Jared Rimer
This morning, Maria was at 140mph as it traversed land. Now that it is leaving land, the storm has weakened considerably, although it is a strong category 2 and is scheduled to restrengthen now that it is over water. How much strengthening, we don't know, but NHC is not sure either. Here's the discussion from the latest advisory so you can see their thinking on this.



Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft found that Maria's
center moved off the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico just before
1800 UTC, but the hurricane appears to have taken quite a hit from
the high mountains of the island. The aircraft measured a maximum
flight-level wind of 106 kt to the east of the center and SFMR
surface winds as high as 91 kt. The initial intensity is therefore
set to 95 kt. The central pressure has also risen considerably, and
the latest report from the airplane is 957 mb.

Maria may have taken a temporary jog west-northwestward across
Puerto Rico, likely due to topographic effects, but the longer-term
motion remains northwestward, or 305/10 kt. Maria should maintain
a northwestward motion for the next 36 hours while it remains on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high over the western
Atlantic. After 36 hours, Maria is expected to turn northward
between the high and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm
Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The updated track
guidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the
overall guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward on this cycle.
The new NHC forecast is therefore nudged a little east of the
previous forecast toward the various consensus aids.

It may take some time for Maria's structure to reorganize itself
now that it is back over water. Although the intensity models are
not all that enthusiastic about strengthening, the environment
looks conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast lies at
the upper bound of the guidance, closest to the HWRF solution. It
would not be surprising, however, if Maria eventually strengthens
more than shown here. Some weakening is expected by days 4 and 5
due to increased shear, as well as Maria possibly moving over the
cold wake of Tropical Storm Jose to the east of the Carolinas.

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today. After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast. The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should subside
through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
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My tweets [Sep. 20th, 2017|12:00 pm]
Jared Rimer
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Maria update [Sep. 19th, 2017|09:27 pm]
Jared Rimer
Here's a discussion from Maria, on the 16th advisory. 10th lowest pressure ever recorded. Read below.


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Since the previous advisory, WSR-88D radar data from San Juan
Puerto Rico has shown the development of concentric eyewalls and
a double-wind maximum. This has led to an increase in the size of
the 50- and 64-kt wind radii. An earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 157 kt
and a few SFMR winds of 149-152 kt in the small inner eyewall
between 2200 and 0000 UTC this evening. Based on these data, the
initial wind speed was increased to 150 kt. The minimum pressure
estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth
lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.
Since the outer eyewall has become better defined and the winds are
increasing within the outer eyewall, it is likely that Maria's
intensification will finally cease. However, Maria is expected to
remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane until landfall in
Puerto Rico early Wednesday. The passage of the core over Puerto
Rico should cause some weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a
major hurricane for several more days. Increasing shear and cooler
waters over the western Atlantic in the wake of hurricanes Irma and
Jose will likely lead to additional weakening late in the period.

Maria is moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt.
A weak ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the
hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days.
This track will bring the center of Maria over Puerto Rico and just
north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so.
After that time, a break in the ridge should cause Maria to turn
north-northwestward, then northward by late in the week. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, yielding fairly high
confidence in the track forecast through that time. There is some
increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the GFS
and HWRF farther west and faster, while the ECMWF is along the
eastern edge of the guidance and slow. For now, the NHC track
forecast is between the various consensus models at 96 and 120 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next
few hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico
early Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts to portions of those islands. Everyone in these
areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.
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My tweets [Sep. 19th, 2017|12:00 pm]
Jared Rimer
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NHC updates for the atlantic [Sep. 18th, 2017|06:33 pm]
Jared Rimer
Jose is losing tropical characteristics, and may be post tropical soon. It is still at 75mph.


Maria has been issued a special advisory. Here is the discussion.


This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Maria.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft
measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an
estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has
been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall
cycles and land interaction.

No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the
extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica
within the next hour or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.



This is the third I believe Hurricane to effect the Leeward and surrounding areas and it'll more than likely effect some part of the United States this week or next. This is just sad. I hope that the people living there will be OK. It is expected to make landfall soon.

I'll see about the eastern pacific and if something is worth noting, I'll report.
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